An argument for television.

I had a conversation today with a representative of a cable television company. I brought up my concerns regarding the changing face of advertising and the legitimacy of television advertising in the coming years. We had a lively discussion and some very valid points were made. I don’t think either of us changed our minds, but I learned some things and was presented with some ideas that I had previously chosen to overlook.

I began the conversation by stating in plain terms that I thought it looked like television advertising had a grim future. He didn’t get excited or angry about it, but presented some arguments that I thought were worth sharing.

TV Ratings tell the story, for now.

First and foremost, in his words, television viewership is at an all time high. I did some research on this and found several things. Ratings for individual events, such as NFL games or the debut of a new season of American Idol were showing record numbers. I also found that increasing diversity in cable programming (the Long Tail) was causing upward trends in adult television viewership. On the flip side, there is a decline in viewership among the younger generation, as video games, DVD’s and the internet take time away from the tube. This trend, in my opinion, backs up my belief that the future of television involves massive changes in structure and advertising format, due to changing viewer habits. Which he didn’t argue with.

On-demand TV and Targeted Advertising.

He let me know that we are just a few years away from TV on demand. In fact, broadcasters will be giving up their analog signals and going digital by 2009. This switch will allow more efficient use of the broadcast spectrum and more easily facilitate on-demand services. My assumption–and I *am* making an assumption–is that this will allow more targeted advertising and will change the rates of advertising, often in favor of the advertiser, as there will no longer be a “prime time”.

Why people will keep watching TV. Or not.

It all comes back to laziness, he says. The truth about American consumers is that the majority of them are lazy, in so far as they get home from their jobs and don’t want to work to find their entertainment (ala the internet) but prefer “push” mediums such as television. I found that a growing number of adults, however, are using the internet daily, and a good percentage of them are using it to get their news and entertainment at least once a day. An even larger number of high school and college students spend multiple hours a day on their laptops instead of in front of the television.

I’ll take mine without ads, please.

Sure, Tivo and it’s ilk are a threat to traditional advertising. So are ineffective commercials with no positioning statement and no message. The bandwidth is overcrowded with noise and it’s already to a point where it takes something special and different to cut through the clutter. Tivo is no more of a threat than bad advertising is already presenting on current programming. Not-so-new methods are being used, such as product placement, to get into people’s hearts and minds. I brought up the argument that I’ve presented elsewhere that people are developing an immunity to tricks such as product placement, that we actually laugh at it. He argued that it was a matter of celebrity loyalty. If you’re a big enough supporter of a celebrity, they can still sell you a bottle of Pepsi. (Aside: I think that the reverse has become true as well; I’ve seen people become loyal enough to a brand to change their opinion on a celebrity in response to product placement of their brand in relationship to that celebrity. Interesting.) The fact remains, it’s getting easier to have your cake without the frosting, so advertisers need to find new ways to add sugar to the mix. If television is changing, so is advertising.

So What is the Future of Television?

Well, some say TV as we know it is going to die. TV says it’s going to change. One thing is for sure, television as we know it today will not exist 10 years from now. And advertisers had better be prepared to change with the demands of the audience and the movements of the television industry. The potential of advertising, given the convenience of the medium, the targeting ability of diverse programming, the cost effectiveness of digital television, and the freedom of on-demand is great. We just need to find new ways to express the message. Using dirty tricks and old techniques will simply create immunity and disdain in consumers. The television industry, assuming they’re as smart as I give them credit for, will still be around when I’m old. But advertising will be a different game, and so will the television watching experience.

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